The World of Religions No. 52 – March/April 2012 —
The question of how French people vote according to their religion is very rarely addressed. Even though, under the principle of secularism, religious affiliation has not been asked in censuses since the beginning of the Third Republic, we do have opinion surveys that provide some insight into this subject. Due to their narrow sampling, however, these surveys cannot measure religions that are too small, such as Judaism, Protestantism, or Buddhism, which each have fewer than a million followers. However, we can get a precise idea of the vote of people who identify as Catholic (around 60% of French people, including 25% practicing) and Muslim (around 5%), as well as of people who identify as "without religion" (around 30% of French people). A Sofres/Pèlerin Magazine poll conducted last January confirms the historical right-wing roots of French Catholics. In the first round, 33% of them would vote for Nicolas Sarkozy, and the score rises to 44% among practicing Catholics. They would also be 21% to vote for Marine Le Pen, but the score is reduced to that of the national average among practicing Catholics (18%). In the second round, 53% of Catholics would vote for Nicolas Sarkozy against 47% for François Hollande, and practicing Catholics would vote 67% for the right-wing candidate – and even 75% for regular practicing Catholics.
This survey also tells us that while Catholics align with the average of all French people in placing the defense of employment and the defense of purchasing power as their two main concerns, they are less numerous than others to be concerned about reducing inequality and poverty… but more numerous to be concerned about the fight against delinquency. Faith and evangelical values ultimately weigh less in the political vote of the majority of Catholics than economic or security concerns. It doesn't matter, moreover, whether the candidate is Catholic or not. It is thus striking to note that the only major candidate in the presidential election who clearly displays his Catholic practice, François Bayrou, does not garner more voting intentions among Catholics than among the rest of the population. Most French Catholics, and especially practicing ones, are above all attached to a value system based on order and stability. However, François Bayrou, on various societal issues with fundamental ethical stakes, has a progressive point of view. This is undoubtedly enough to destabilize a good part of the traditional Catholic electorate. Nicolas Sarkozy has undoubtedly sensed this, he who, on bioethics laws, homoparentality, and same-sex marriage, remains in line with traditional Catholic positions.
Finally, surveys conducted by the Center for Political Research at Sciences Po show that French Muslims, unlike Catholics, vote overwhelmingly for the left (78%). Even though three-quarters of them hold low-skilled jobs, we nevertheless observe a vote specifically linked to religion, since 48% of Muslim workers and employees classify themselves on the left, compared to 26% of Catholic workers and employees and 36% of workers and employees "without religion." Overall, the "without religion" - a category that continues to grow - also vote strongly to the left (71%). A strange alliance thus appears, between the "without religion" - most often progressive on societal issues - and French Muslims, undoubtedly more conservative on these same issues, but engaged in an "anyone but Sarkozy" logic.