The World of Religions No. 55 – September/October 2012 —
About thirty years ago, when I began my studies in sociology and the history of religions, the only topic of conversation was "secularization," and most specialists in religious studies believed that religion would gradually transform and then dissolve within European societies increasingly marked by materialism and individualism. The European model would then spread to the rest of the world with the globalization of Western values and lifestyles. In short, religion was doomed in the long run.
Over the past ten years, the model and analysis have been reversed: we talk about "desecularization", we see the rise of religious identity and conservative movements everywhere and Peter Berger, the great American sociologist of religions, notes that "the world is still as furiously religious as it has always been" . Europe is therefore perceived as a global exception, but one which in turn risks being increasingly affected by this new religious wave.
So, what does the future hold? Based on current trends, astute observers offer a possible overview of world religions in 2050 in this issue's in-depth feature. Christianity is projected to extend its lead over other religions, driven by demographic growth in developing countries but also by the strong surge of Evangelicals and Pentecostals across all five continents. Islam is expected to continue its population growth, but this growth is likely to slow considerably, particularly in Europe and Asia, ultimately limiting the expansion of the Muslim faith, which attracts far fewer conversions than Christianity. Hinduism and Buddhism are expected to remain relatively stable, although the values and certain practices of Buddhism (such as meditation) will continue to spread more widely in the West and Latin America. Like other, very small minority religions based on blood ties, Judaism will either remain stable or decline depending on various demographic scenarios and the number of intermarriages.
But beyond these major trends, as Jean-Paul Willaime and Raphaël Liogier each remind us in their own way, religions will continue to transform and be affected by modernity, particularly individualization and globalization. Today, individuals have an increasingly personal vision of religion and create their own framework of meaning, sometimes syncretic, often cobbled together. Even fundamentalist or integralist movements are the product of individuals or groups of individuals who cobble together a reinvented "pure religion of origins." As long as the process of globalization continues, religions will continue to provide points of reference for identity to individuals who lack them and who are anxious or feel culturally invaded or dominated. And as long as humankind is searching for meaning, it will continue to seek answers in the vast religious heritage of humanity. But these quests for identity and spirituality can no longer be experienced, as in the past, within an unchanging tradition or a normative institutional framework. The future of religions, therefore, depends not only on the number of followers, but also on how they will reinterpret the legacy of the past. And this is precisely the biggest question mark that makes any long-term prospective analysis perilous. So, lacking rationality, we can always imagine and dream. This is also what we offer you in this issue, through our columnists, who have agreed to answer the question: "What religion do you dream of for 2050?"