The World of Religions No. 55 – September/October 2012 —
About thirty years ago, when I began my studies in sociology and the history of religions, all we talked about was "secularization," and most religious scholars believed that religion would gradually metamorphose and then dissolve within European societies increasingly marked by materialism and individualism. The European model would then spread to the rest of the world with the globalization of Western values and lifestyles. In short, religion was doomed in the more or less long term.
Over the past ten years, the model and analysis have been reversed: we talk about "desecularization", we see the rise of religious identity and conservative movements everywhere and Peter Berger, the great American sociologist of religions, notes that "the world is still as furiously religious as it has always been" . Europe is therefore perceived as a global exception, but one which in turn risks being increasingly affected by this new religious wave.
So, what does the future hold? Based on current trends, informed observers offer in this issue's major report a possible panorama of world religions by 2050. Christianity would increase its lead over other religions, notably thanks to the demographics of the countries of the South but also due to the strong growth of evangelicals and Pentecostals on five continents. Islam would continue to progress through its demographics, but this growth is expected to slow significantly, particularly in Europe and Asia, which will ultimately limit the growth of the Muslim religion, which attracts far fewer conversions than Christianity. Hinduism and Buddhism would remain more or less stable, even if the values and certain practices of the latter (such as meditation) will continue to spread more and more widely in the West and Latin America. Like other religions, which are very much in the minority and are linked to blood transmission, Judaism will remain stable or decline depending on different demographic scenarios and the number of mixed marriages.
But beyond these major trends, as Jean-Paul Willaime and Raphaël Liogier each remind us in their own way, religions will continue to transform and undergo the effects of modernity, notably individualization and globalization. Today, individuals have an increasingly personal vision of religion and create their own system of meaning, sometimes syncretic, often improvised. Even integrist or fundamentalist movements are the product of individuals or groups of individuals who tinker by reinventing "a pure religion of origins." As long as the process of globalization continues, religions will continue to provide identity markers to individuals who lack them and who are worried or feel culturally invaded or dominated. And as long as man is in search of meaning, he will continue to seek answers in the vast religious heritage of humanity. But these quests for identity and spirituality can no longer be experienced, as in the past, within an immutable tradition or a normative institutional framework. The future of religions is therefore not only determined by the number of followers, but also by the way in which they will reinterpret the legacy of the past. And this is the biggest question mark that makes any long-term prospective analysis perilous. So, in the absence of rationality, we can always imagine and dream. This is also what we offer you in this issue, through our columnists, who have agreed to answer the question: "What religion do you dream of for 2050?"